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CRPS-Optimal Binning for Univariate Conformal Regression

Toccaceli, Paolo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation based on partitioning covariate-sorted observations into contiguous bins and using the within-bin empirical CDF as the predictive distribution. Bin boundaries are chosen to minimise the total leave-one-out Continuous Ranked Probability Score (LOO-CRPS), which admits a closed-form cost function with $O(n^2 \log n)$ precomputation and $O(n^2)$ storage; the globally optimal $K$-partition is recovered by a dynamic programme in $O(n^2 K)$ time. Minimisation of within-sample LOO-CRPS turns out to be inappropriate for selecting $K$ as it results in in-sample optimism. We instead select $K$ by $K$-fold cross-validation of test CRPS, which yields a U-shaped criterion with a well-defined minimum. Having selected $K^*$ and fitted the full-data partition, we form two complementary predictive objects: the Venn prediction band and a conformal prediction set based on CRPS as the nonconformity score, which carries a finite-sample marginal coverage guarantee at any prescribed level $\varepsilon$. The conformal prediction is transductive and data-efficient, as all observations are used for both partitioning and p-value calculation, with no need to reserve a hold-out set. On real benchmarks against split-conformal competitors (Gaussian split conformal, CQR, CQR-QRF, and conformalized isotonic distributional regression), the method produces substantially narrower prediction intervals while maintaining near-nominal coverage.





Label Poisoning is All You Need

Neural Information Processing Systems

In a backdoor attack, an adversary injects corrupted data into a model's training dataset in order to gain control over its predictions on images with a specific attacker-defined trigger. A typical corrupted training example requires altering both the image, by applying the trigger, and the label. Models trained on clean images, therefore, were considered safe from backdoor attacks. However, in some common machine learning scenarios, the training labels are provided by potentially malicious third-parties. This includes crowd-sourced annotation and knowledge distillation. We, hence, investigate a fundamental question: can we launch a successful backdoor attack by only corrupting labels?





Checklist 1. For all authors (a)

Neural Information Processing Systems

Do the main claims made in the abstract and introduction accurately reflect the paper's If you ran experiments (e.g. for benchmarks)... (a) Did you include the code, data, and instructions needed to reproduce the main experimental results (either in the supplemental material or as a URL)? [Y es] See A.2 (b) Did you specify all the training details (e.g., data splits, hyperparameters, how they Did you report error bars (e.g., with respect to the random seed after running experiments multiple times)? Did you include the total amount of compute and the type of resources used (e.g., type Did you include any new assets either in the supplemental material or as a URL? [Y es] Did you discuss whether and how consent was obtained from people whose data you're If you used crowdsourcing or conducted research with human subjects... (a) For a detailed description and intended uses, please refer to 1. A.2 Dataset Accessibility We plan to host and maintain this dataset on HuggingFace. A.4 Dataset Examples Example question-answer pairs are provided in Tables 9 10 11, . Example Question "What does the symbol mean in Equation 1?" Answer "The symbol in Equation 1 represents "follows this distribution". "Can you provide more information about what is meant by'generative process in "The generative process refers to Eq. (2), which is a conceptual equation representing Question "How does the DeepMoD method differ from what is written in/after Eq 3?" Answer "We add noise only to Question "How to do the adaptive attack based on Eq.(16)? "By Maximizing the loss in Eq (16) using an iterative method such as PGD on the end-to-end model we attempt to maximize the loss to cause misclassification while Question "How does the proposed method handle the imputed reward?" "The proposed method uses the imputed reward in the second part of Equation 1, "Table 2 is used to provide a comparison of the computational complexity of the "Optimal number of clusters affected by the number of classes or similarity between "The authors have addressed this concern by including a new experiment in Table 4 of Question "Can you clarify the values represented in Table 1?" Answer "The values in Table 1 represent the number of evasions, which shows the attack "The experiments in table 1 do not seem to favor the proposed method much; softmax Can the authors explain why this might be the case?" Answer "The proposed method reduces to empirical risk minimization with a proper loss, and However, the authors hope that addressing concerns about the method's theoretical Question "Does the first row of Table 2 correspond to the offline method?"